Take Upbeat Economic News with Grain of Salt

Everybody's eager for some good news on the economy, and lately we've been getting some. After a summer swoon that included an epic display of ineptitude in Washington, the first-ever downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, a stock-market plunge and a sharp decline in consumer confidence, the numbers have been looking rosier lately. Consumer spending is up, suggesting that ordinary folks aren't as glum as they say they are in confidence surveys. Jobless numbers have been gradually improving. There are signs of optimism in the beleaguered housing industry. And the index of leading indicators, which hints at the future direction of the economy, recently recorded a sharp increase.

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