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Even if it were a legit number, the 8.3% February unemployment rate, released today by the Labor Department, would be simply terrible"”and unacceptable. It would still extend the longest streak of 8%-plus unemployment since the Great Depression. The U.S. economy hasn’t been below 8% unemployment since Obama took office in January 2009. And back in May 2007, unemployment was just 4.4%.
But, unfortunately, the true measure of U.S. unemployment is much, much worse.
1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office"”65.7% then vs. 63.9% today"”the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.8%.
2. But what if you take into the account the aging of the Baby Boomers, which means the labor force participation (LFP) rate should be trending lower. Indeed, it has been doing just that since 2000. Before the Great Recession, the Congressional Budget Office predicted what the LFP would be in 2012, assuming such demographic changes. Using that number, the real unemployment rate would be 10.4%.
3. Of course, the LFP rate usually falls during recessions. Yet even if you discount for that and the aging issue, the real unemployment rate would be 9.5%.
4. Then there's the broader, U-6 measure of unemployment which includes the discouraged plus part-timers who wish they had full time work. That unemployment rate, perhaps the truest measure of the labor market’s health, is still a sky-high 14.9%.
5. Recall that back in 2009, White House economists Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer used their old-fashioned Keynesian model to predict how the $800 billion stimulus would affect employment. According to their model"”as displayed in the above chart, updated"”unemployment should be around 6% today.
6. As Ed Carson of Investor’s Business Daily points out, it’s been a whopping 49 months since the U.S. hit peak employment in January 2008. The average job recovery time since 1980 is 29 months, not including the current slump.
7. And how long might it take to get back to the 4.4% unemployment rate that existed under President George. W. Bush? Well, let’s say the goal was to get back to that rate in 5 years. And let’s assume the LFP rate returns to the CBO trend. According to a jobs calculator created by the Atlanta Fed, the U.S. economy would have to generate about 225,000 jobs a month, every month, for the next 60 months to hit that target. But few economist think we’ll see sustained job growth like that, especially since it assumes the economy would avoid recession during that span.
Indeed, JPMorgan just cut its GDP forecast for this quarter to 1.5% from 2.0% and says there is “some downside risk” to its second-quarter forecast of 2.5%.
The U.S. labor market is slowly getting healthier, but it’s a long way from being healthy.
The chart is even more damning than it appears because what is almost never, ever discussed is that when the Democrats took control of both houses of congress in 2006 unemployment was was under 5% and falling to 4.4%. Six months later, the unemployment began to rise and Barney Frank and company vilified the Republicans for trying to bring accountability to F&F thereby locking out any hope of forstalling the inevitable collapse.
This, my friends, is the true tale of the graph. It started in 2006. When Obama took over the executive branch there was not one left to stop the juggernaught of spending that quickly ensued.
Cheers,
Michael
In So California, they are closing inner city schools because many families that have been in the country illegally are moving back to Mexico.
Hey, that can be Obama’s reelection theme, “There are more opportunities in Mexico!” or “Obama is stupider than Felipe Calderon!”
ignore this statistical nonsense with “seasonally adjusted data” just look at the raw data … employed Jan 2009 – 131,555,000 employed Jan 2012 – 130,313,000
employed Feb 2009 – 131,314,000 employed Feb 2012 – 131,164,000
no net job creation over Obama’s 3 years …
YOU’RE JOB AT 711 WILL SUPPORT YOU, SO YOU MUST SUPPORT OUR GREAT LEADER!!! TREMENDOUS SUCCESS!! 4 MORE YEARS!!! =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =) =)
I haven’t lived in the US since before O’bama ascended to the throne, but I’m still feeling the hurt of his policies. For the record, I’d prefer that the Labor Dept not know about me.
Given the Federal Governments habit of lying to the American people, the U.S. Government is now the same as, for example, the Russian Government. We have truly become a people of the government, by the government, and for the government.
President Jimmy Carter (77 to 81) had an unemployment rate of 7.6%
President Obama (08 to 12) is estimated to have an unemployment rate of 8.5%. Why isn’t this being debated?
Year Inflation Unemployment (1) ——————————- 1961 1.0% 6.7% 1962 1.0 5.6 1963 1.3 5.6 1964 1.3 5.2 1965 1.6 4.5 < Vietnam war spending increases 1966 2.9 3.8 1967 3.1 3.8 1968 4.2 3.5 1969 5.5 3.5 1970 5.7 5.0 1971 4.4 6.0 1972 3.2 5.6 1973 6.2 4.9 1974 11.0 5.6 < First oil crisis 1975 9.1 8.5 1976 5.8 7.7 1977 6.5 7.1 1978 7.6 6.1 1979 11.3 5.9 < Second oil crisis 1980 13.5 7.2 1981 10.3 7.6 1982 6.2 9.7 1983 3.2 9.6 1984 4.3 7.5
"Helicopter down" was the cry during Mr. Carter's last year in office. Mr. Obama has made a conscious effort to not have this, or any other event occur during this re-election bid, by ceasing all "active" overseas military operations in any War Zone so as to not have a repeat of Mr. Carter's final year in office.
So, are We The People to accept this President as unstoppable, having had:1) major failures in domestic and foreign affairs, 2)a rate of unemployment far exceeding Jimmy Carter's (another failed Presidency) and 3)racial divides never seen in the USA as encouraged by a sitting President?
Yes, this President is beatable, is weak and a vacuous failure. God Bless America. Amen!
The route to zero % unemployment is to lay off 100% of the workers for more than the duration of unemployment benefits. By the standard government, unemployment would be zero because no one would be applying for unemployment benefits after they were expired. Is that a brilliant solution to our unemployment problem, or what!
Does Obama think that we really believe that things are getting better because he says they are? You can fool some of the people all the time, you can fool all of the people some of the time but, you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. That was a quote from Abraham Lincoln.
The scary thing is that this mediocre performance is built on the Fed keeping interest rates near zero and the USG still running a fiscal deficit of about 8-9% of GDP. Yes, we can stay awake a while longer by popping more pills, but eventually we’re gonna crash. We’re just sowing the seeds of the big one.
yes, it is unacceptable and it’s all because of your buddy bush. you ought to know that recoveries following financial-ed recessions/depressions are deep & slow. o has done a solid job of reversing the horror of bush’s wrong-headed policies, which led to the hemorrhaging of millions of jobs. O is doing just fine. your hack attack is just empty-headed and wrong
What about all the people on parole and in prisons? Unlike most other countries, the US has a very high number of people in prison per capita compared to other countries. What percentage of US prisoners are in prison because they didn’t have a full time job to make money? I don’t believe people on parole are counted as being unemployed (even if they are)
So how much higher would the unemployment rate be if the US had prison rates similar to other countries (Canada, EU, Japan ect….)
So we are now Japan of the 90s and can look forward to a lost decade. The question is when did the decade start for the US.
Remember those “created or saved” jobs? I’m pretty sure if you add in those “saved” jobs, sprinkle a little pixie dust, the measured employment rate will have hit that target long ago.
Pethokoukis and Kudlow and the other GOP flaks are miserable because the economy is improving. Their worst nightmare.
Either way you look at it, we have many years to go before we see improvement. The big unknown is what will the baby boomer’s do with the money they have. Without consumption we will stagnate and with Bernanke we are inflating.
Sigh. . . .
I THINK the point is that “the economy is improving” is a canard, a smokescreen, a lie. It’s NOT improving, which is what your “flaks” and other sensible people have surmised. Hard to grasp when you take Guvmint “information” at face value, I realize.
Inflation is over 10% Unemployment about 18%I have been out of work 3 yrs 4 Months Not eligible for U/E nor Food stamps but illegal Immigrants are.. Go Figure… President Obama is a Person not to be TRUSTED
As James proves above, the economy and unemployment are NOT getting better. The worst nightmare is the thought of another four years of fecklessness in the White House. Romney’s near the bottom of my list of preferences, but I’d vote three times for him, and given the choice between voting for Obama or putting a gun to my head, I’m checking out of the hotel life.
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