Joe Sixpack Is Done Being The Dumb Money

Goldman screams it is a generational buy, Larry Fink goes all in stocks, Notorious BIGGS is 90% long, anchors on comedy-financial fusion channels are channeling the producer in their earpiece and screaming at the teleprompter to "sell bonds and buy stocks", even as stocks are at their highest in nearly 5 years and... what happens? In the latest week, ICI just reported that domestic equity retail funds just saw another $2.9 billion outflow, the 4th consecutive in a row, and the 23 of out 27 outflows during the entire parabolic blow off top phase the market has undergone since October, and instead put another $9 billion in fixed income funds "soaring" yields be damned. What does this mean? Probably that the stock ramp is about to get uber-parabolic for the simple reason that this is the only thing left in the status quo's arsenal - to keep doing the same old same old, hoping for a different outcome, because this time it's different. Only this time the dumb money either doesn't have the cash to burn, or just doesn't want to participate in a rigged, corrupt, centrally-planned market. Whatever the case, the Primary Dealers and the Fed will just have to keep hoping more central banks pull a Bank of Israel and sell the hot grenade axes to them, since Joe Sixpack is done being the "dumb money."

Market moving higher on fumes. But it can last a lot longer than we think.  And notice the tiny downer on AAPL today. Hmmm.

I'm just waiting for the Fed to be wired directly into the exchanges so they can have complete control of prices and who is allowed to buy/sell.

They already are. Look up who the DTCC is, what their function is and who owns them.

DTCC's customer base extends to thousands of companies within the global financial services industry. DTCC serves brokers, dealers, institutional investors, banks, trust companies, mutual fund companies, insurance carriers, hedge funds and other financial intermediaries - either directly or through correspondent relationships. Increasingly, DTCC's customers operate both in the U.S. and overseas, where DTCC continues to provide them with services.

In the U.S., DTCC provides critical services to the markets for U.S. Government and mortgage-backed securities, and to all U.S. equity marketplaces, including the New York Stock Exchange, The Nasdaq Stock Market, the American Stock Exchange, and regional U.S. markets, as well as electronic trading and communications networks (ECNs).



My profit is locked in because every day I just keep raising the strike price on my APPL STOP order.  

Here, here for You.  Seems like a great plan.  Is your stop low enough to cover the 20 dollar swings? Must be.  I might even think of trying it.

My take is this. Commodity stocks are beat up and the hedge funds are still beating on them. Without them. I do not want anything.

Excluding "OIL"  the rest are dirt.  Even though many are being consumed faster than above ground supplies.

What does Dr. Market have to say about that.  We build motors out of aluminum instead of steal.  Super Poor for those high heat fuel injected monsters.

Can you say WARP drive or Warped Motor.  Almost seems like a plan.  When I see basic mineral stocks going down, down, down. 

I am not a believer.  Even the white metals are failing.  And unless there is demand for them vs. above ground supplies.  I buy nothing.

Without a good foundation. The market is a farce.   If I see the whites go up. I can believe.  Without that demand, it's a bull trap.

With this rate of investor participation in th 'market' you could run that system on the old Apple IIe.

Very ironic.

This "Muppet" revolt will not stand. Must be put down. I will set interest rates to -.25. Should work.

- Ben

They are trying to keep the market and economy looking nice until after the elections, and it won't work.  This market and the economy wants to burst and go down hard and Obama is afraid of it happening.  Just look at what happened to Bush the second, even though it was his second term he couldn't keep what was happening from happening during an election.  And Obama is fighting for his life for votes and he needs the market to stay nice.

Can someone answer me -  Is AAPL the most massively overbought large cap stock of all time? TIA

I don't think their intelligence has changed much. I just think they are getting old and their liabilities (house price and credit cards) exceed their assets (house) and they are getting older and older.

They just can't be dumb any longer even if they wanted to dumb down.

Bernanke built it; they will come as they must. But for a little while they will remember - will be less dumb. Could be the setup for epic event. The market is dead man walking and Dr bernankenstein and his minions have everything under control. How long can this thing maintain - 3 months or 3 years. The problem with Tylers analyses is I think he underestimates thier willingness to trash everything and every one to maintain thier status. Give them what they want 2x.

Until ETF flows are netted into this line of reasoning it will continue to make no sense at all....

From a recent ConvergEx report: nobody appears to like domestic equities very much... Except for Apple of course. But we already know all about the NASDAPPLE.

Vanguard has a lot of state pensions.  When that bubble pops, I might expect some shooting to start.

Inflationary deflation

Everything we consume costs more ... every capital asset we own is worth less

Seems like most everyone is waiting for stock market to get crushed-----hurry up already

Joe Six Pack AGAIN...selling into strength and kickin' ass, bitchez!

Wait a minute, "Joe six pack" has money?

Yup. Joe found 35 cents in the washing machine and a couple of quarters under the couch cushions. Living large is back in the land of milk and honey.

Time for bonds and cash until the crash is over with, FED must print then into hard assets. Easy enough.

Me like "dumb money" being smart for once! They sell as the market gets higher because they all sat on loses for so long now and just want to get out! Which is commendable, given valuations and levels of gov intervention...ahm...manipulation!

No one will be sucked in this FEDster induced, slowly dwindeling "liquidity", algos can keep playing ping pong wiht each other and then finally canibalize one another for good, i'll be watching in delight!...AND SHORT THE SHIT OUT OF EVERYTHING MOVING :)))

Great chart, I love how retail can be counted on to be consistently wrong. It's the only business in the world where people do not buy when things are on sale.

Price it however you like, if there are no real buyers (a.k.a. no demand) do it really matter?  I don't consider companies buying their own stock or the Fed, or the primary dealers real buyers, do you?

The answer is yes, they are real buyers until the weakest link ends up like Bear Stearns, Lehman and very recently MF Global.

I'm saying Merryll Lynch is the next in line. Let's see.

That is a fair call, where do you see Morgan Stanley?  I have always said it won't interesting until all the insiders start eating each other.  At some point though you have exponentially more entities/corporation/banks/governments holding exponentially more bad paper promised to each other that has no purchasing power.  Do you really think 707 trillion dollars in CDS is real?  No fucking way.  Once it is decided who is really "in the club" and who is not.  All these entities will have to look at each other and say "call it even".  If they don't, we get WWIII.  Either way, paper burns, period. Same as it ever was, hedge accordingly.

Why do retail investors need to be in this market anymore? The Fed can just set the S&P to whatever they want and we'll all reap the benefits.

Maybe for the short squeeze when the FED tries to buy the last remaining shares on the market that's not yet on their books?

Can't have a short squeeze without shorts. And you can't have a crash if noone's buying at the margins. I guess that means S&P [0,infinity]?

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