In a recent column, the economic journalist Robert J. Samuelson excoriated the economics profession for doing a poor job of anticipating, explaining or offering useful advice regarding the economic crisis that began in 2007 and continues to this day.
His points are certainly valid, although perhaps overstated. Forecasting is, after all, only one small aspect of economics, no better or worse than, say, public opinion polling in the field of political science. Pollsters always caution that polls, at best, can only tell us the results if the election were held today, not several months from now. And the same caveat applies to economic forecasting.
n a recent column, the economic journalist Robert J. Samuelson excoriated the economics profession for doing a poor job of anticipating, explaining or offering useful advice regarding the economic crisis that began in 2007 and continues to this day.
His points are certainly valid, although perhaps overstated. Forecasting is, after all, only one small aspect of economics, no better or worse than, say, public opinion polling in the field of political science. Pollsters always caution that polls, at best, can only tell us the results if the election were held today, not several months from now. And the same caveat applies to economic forecasting.
- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2014/02/21/Poor-Forecasting-Achilles-Heel-Economics#sthash.pLR8AfRT.dpufn a recent column, the economic journalist Robert J. Samuelson excoriated the economics profession for doing a poor job of anticipating, explaining or offering useful advice regarding the economic crisis that began in 2007 and continues to this day.
His points are certainly valid, although perhaps overstated. Forecasting is, after all, only one small aspect of economics, no better or worse than, say, public opinion polling in the field of political science. Pollsters always caution that polls, at best, can only tell us the results if the election were held today, not several months from now. And the same caveat applies to economic forecasting.
