Alpha is not generated over time from being up more than stocks, but rather from avoiding large downdrafts and periods of heightened stock-market volatility. Some have argued I am a "perma-bear," given that for the past year and a half, I have been consistent in arguing that stocks should not have performed as they did in the face of collapsing inflation expectations. This was never once based on opinion, but instead on a careful study of inter-market dynamics.
Read Full Article »