Fed Might Not Have Luxury of Slow Increases

With a 0.25 percent rise in the Fed’s main tool for influencing interest rates a near certainty, investors are already beginning to focus on rate increases that may lie ahead. Will they be gradual, as Ms. Yellen has suggested? Or will economic developments push the Fed to be more aggressive?

Answering these questions requires a crystal ball, which no one has. But they are worth exploring, given the market dislocations that can occur when policy moves take investors by surprise.