Yes, Market-Timing Works, But It Mucks Things Up

I’m writing this a little bit late -- maybe seven years too late. It was after the financial crisis that “tactical asset allocation” came into vogue. The buzzword, and the idea itself, are still very popular. Tactical asset allocation is a fancy way of saying market-timing. When you think it’s a bull market, you hold more stocks; when you think it’s a bear market, you hold more cash. Everyone would like to do that, right? You buy when things are going to go up and sell when things are going to go down, and you make a bunch of money.